USC’s Defense in the 2025-26 Women’s Basketball Season: A Defensive Transformation
USC’s defense in the 2025-26 women’s basketball season is undergoing a significant transformation following the season-ending ACL injury to JuJu Watkins and the departure of six of last year’s seven rotation players. Early defensive metrics from USC’s first three games against Baylor, Oregon, and Long Beach State reveal how new lineups and unheralded players are reshaping the Trojans’ defensive profile ahead of Pac-12 conference play.
Defensive Efficiency vs. Preseason Projections
Preseason projections from KenPom and Her Hoop Stats had USC’s adjusted defensive efficiency ranked in the mid-40s nationally, reflecting expectations that the team would struggle to maintain last season’s defensive standards without Watkins and key veterans. However, through three games, USC’s adjusted defensive efficiency has shown a mixed but promising picture.
- Opponent Field Goal Percentage (FG%): USC has held opponents to an average FG% of approximately 38.5% over these games, a slight improvement over their 2024-25 season average of 40.2%. This suggests that despite roster upheaval, the Trojans are contesting shots effectively.
- Points in the Paint: Opponents have averaged 18.3 points in the paint per game against USC, down from 21.7 last season. This improvement indicates better interior defense and rim protection, a critical area given the loss of Watkins, who was a defensive anchor.
- Transition Points Allowed: USC has allowed just 9.7 transition points per game, a notable reduction from 13.5 last season. This reflects improved defensive discipline and communication, limiting easy fast-break opportunities.
- Defensive Rebound Rate: The Trojans have maintained a defensive rebound rate near 74%, consistent with last year’s 75%, helping to limit second-chance points despite personnel changes.
New Defensive Leaders Emerging
With JuJu Watkins sidelined, several lesser-known players have stepped into starting roles and are driving these defensive improvements:
- Gerda Raulusaityte (Forward/Center): Leading the team with 1.0 blocks per game, Raulusaityte has been a key rim protector, anchoring the paint defense and helping reduce opponent points inside.
- Jazzy Davidson (Guard): Averaging 1.0 steals per game, Davidson’s perimeter pressure has disrupted opposing offenses and contributed to the lower opponent FG% and transition points allowed.
- Kennedy Smith (Forward): Also contributing 1.0 blocks per game, Smith has provided valuable interior defense alongside Raulusaityte, compensating for the loss of last season’s shot-blocking presence.
- Laura Williams and Brooklyn Shamblin have also contributed defensively with consistent minutes and active hands, helping USC maintain defensive intensity despite the roster turnover.
Impact of Lineup Changes
USC’s new frontcourt rotation, featuring Raulusaityte and Smith, has been instrumental in improving paint defense and shot-blocking. Meanwhile, the perimeter defense led by Davidson has tightened up, reducing opponent shooting efficiency and transition scoring.
The Trojans’ defensive rebounding remains solid, preventing opponents from capitalizing on offensive rebounds. This balance between interior presence and perimeter pressure is a positive sign for USC’s defensive identity moving forward.
Betting Angles and Market Implications
For bettors, these defensive shifts suggest that early-season defensive totals lines for USC games may be mispriced if based on outdated preseason projections or last season’s metrics. Key angles include:
- Under on Opponent Points: Given the improved paint defense and transition points allowed, betting unders on opponent scoring totals could offer value, especially against teams reliant on interior scoring or fast breaks.
- Adjusted Defensive Efficiency Props: USC’s ability to hold opponents below 40% FG and limit points in the paint may lead to favorable lines on team defensive efficiency props.
- Player Props on Emerging Defenders: Raulusaityte and Davidson’s defensive stats (blocks and steals) could be targeted for over bets in player prop markets, reflecting their increased roles.
Schedule and Context
USC’s early opponents—Baylor, Oregon, and Long Beach State—represent a mix of offensive styles, providing a solid test of the new defensive schemes. The Trojans’ ability to hold their own defensively against these varied attacks bodes well for the tougher Pac-12 slate ahead.
With 28 games on the horizon and no recent detailed coverage of USC’s defensive evolution, this analysis offers bettors a unique edge by focusing on real-time defensive data rather than headline offensive narratives.
USC’s post-Watkins defensive restructuring is a critical but underreported story in NCAA women’s basketball. The Trojans’ new lineups have not only stabilized but in some areas improved defensive metrics early in the season, driven by unheralded players stepping up in key roles. Bettors should monitor these trends closely, as they may reveal mispriced defensive totals and player props before conference play intensifies.