Early in the 2025-26 NBA season, betting on over/under totals has proven especially volatile as teams adjust their pace, shooting efficiency, and defensive schemes. Comparing actual performance through the first 10-12 games against preseason projections reveals several notable discrepancies that create potential "trap" totals—lines that sportsbooks may have mispriced due to outdated assumptions. Bettors who recognize these early-season shifts can find valuable edges by targeting or avoiding specific game totals.
Key Early-Season Trends and Team Discrepancies
- Utah Jazz: Unexpectedly High Pace and Scoring
Preseason projections pegged Utah as a solid but not elite offensive team, with a moderate pace. However, through their first 12 games, the Jazz have surged to a league-leading pace of 133.7 possessions per 48 minutes, well above last season’s average and preseason expectations[1]. Their offensive rating has jumped to 126 points per 100 possessions, fueled by Lauri Markkanen’s explosive scoring (51 points in a recent game)[6]. Defensively, they remain average, allowing 121.5 points per 100 possessions.
Betting angle: Games involving Utah are trending toward higher totals than sportsbooks initially set. For example, their upcoming matchup against a middling defensive team like Sacramento (which has struggled defensively, allowing 119.8 points per 100 possessions) likely features an underpriced over/under line. Bettors should consider the over in Utah’s games, especially when pace is expected to remain high[1].
- Washington Wizards: Defensive Collapse and Pace Drop
The Wizards have experienced a sharp decline in defensive performance, allowing a staggering 137.8 points per 100 possessions, the worst in the league so far[1]. Their pace has slowed compared to last season, but the defensive breakdowns have led to high-scoring affairs. Despite this, some sportsbooks have not adjusted totals upward sufficiently, possibly due to Washington’s poor record (1-8) and low expectations[2].
Betting angle: When Washington faces teams with efficient offenses, the totals are often set too low. Bettors should look for overs in Wizards games, particularly against teams that push pace or shoot well from deep.
- San Antonio Spurs: Defensive Improvement and Pace Control
Contrasting with Washington, San Antonio has improved defensively, holding opponents to just 105.3 points per 100 possessions, a significant drop from last season[1]. They also control pace better, playing at 116.8 possessions per game, slightly slower than the league average but more deliberate. This has led to lower-scoring games than preseason models predicted.
Betting angle: Spurs games may feature unders more often than expected, especially against teams that struggle offensively or rely on slower tempo. Bettors should monitor Spurs matchups where totals remain high due to outdated offensive projections.
- Toronto Raptors: Shooting Variance and Pace Stability
Toronto’s pace remains stable around 120.5 possessions per game, but their shooting efficiency has fluctuated. Early-season shooting splits show a dip in 3-point percentage, which has suppressed scoring below preseason expectations[1]. Defensive metrics remain average.
Betting angle: Raptors games with totals set high based on preseason offensive projections may be traps for the over. Bettors should consider unders when Toronto faces teams with solid defenses or slower pace.
- Philadelphia 76ers: Balanced but Volatile
Philadelphia has maintained a pace close to preseason estimates but has shown some variance in offensive efficiency. Joel Embiid’s health and shooting form have influenced scoring outputs, causing some games to swing widely in total points[2][4].
Betting angle: In games where Embiid’s status is uncertain or against strong defensive teams, totals might be inflated. Bettors should watch for unders in these scenarios, while games with Embiid healthy and against weaker defenses may favor the over.
Specific Game Totals to Target or Avoid
- Utah Jazz vs. Sacramento Kings (Upcoming Game)
Given Utah’s league-leading pace and Sacramento’s defensive struggles, the total is likely set around 230 points. Considering Utah’s offensive rating and pace, this line may be too low. The over is a strong play here. - Washington Wizards vs. Miami Heat
Washington’s porous defense combined with Miami’s uptempo style suggests a high-scoring game. If the total is below 225, the over is attractive. - San Antonio Spurs vs. New York Knicks
Spurs’ defensive improvements and controlled pace suggest a lower-scoring affair. If the total is above 215, the under is advisable. - Toronto Raptors vs. Boston Celtics
Raptors’ shooting variance and Boston’s defense could suppress scoring. If the total is near 220, consider the under.
Why Early-Season Totals Are Volatile and How Bettors Can Profit
The first two weeks of the NBA season are marked by teams adjusting rotations, integrating new players, and finding offensive and defensive identities. Preseason projections, often based on last season’s data and offseason changes, lag behind real-time performance shifts. This creates discrepancies in pace and scoring efficiency that sportsbooks may not immediately price into totals.
By analyzing pace, offensive/defensive ratings, and shooting trends from the first 10-12 games, bettors can identify which totals are likely mispriced. Targeting these "trap" totals—either overs or unders—provides a data-driven edge during a period of market inefficiency.
Actionable Takeaways for Bettors
- Focus on teams with significant pace changes (e.g., Utah’s fast pace vs. San Antonio’s slower tempo).
- Monitor shooting variance, especially 3-point percentage fluctuations, which heavily influence scoring totals.
- Use updated offensive and defensive ratings rather than preseason projections to assess true scoring potential.
- Target overs in games involving teams with poor defense and high pace (Washington, Utah).
- Lean toward unders when facing teams with improved defense or shooting struggles (San Antonio, Toronto).
This early-season volatility in NBA totals offers a prime opportunity for bettors to exploit mispriced lines before sportsbooks fully adjust. Staying current with pace and efficiency trends is essential to finding profitable over/under bets in the 2025-26 NBA season.